A Blue Print For Germany’s Pension Reform

Germany relies almost exclusively on a public pay-as-you-go pension system for old-age in-come provision. This mandatory “retirement insurance” has become under severe pressure, mainly from population aging and from incentive effects that have reduced labor supply. This paper argues Germany needs a pension reform with three main elements: (1) A reformed pay-as-you-go pillar which is actuarially fair, features a transparent notional account set-up, and freezes contribution rates at the current level; (2) A second funded pillar which is based on US 401(k)-style grouped accounts that finance the impending aging burden; (3) Augmented by redistributive features that guarantee a minimum pension and strengthen human capital formation. The paper briefly discusses the sources of the current problems, details the reform proposal, in particular the cohort- and time-varying transition burden which turns out to be rather moderate, and sheds light on the side effects of such a transition on the German macro economy which are more subtle than is often claimed.

From Traditional DB to Notional DC Systems

This paper provides a critical review of the pension reform strategy which turns defined benefits (DB) public pay-as-you-go systems into notional defined contribution (NDC) systems. We show that properly designed NDC public pension systems contain powerful economic and political mechanisms that may facilitate pension reform, but that the distinction between public NDC and DB systems is more ambiguous than usually claimed.

European welfare state regimes and their generosity towards the elderly

The paper examines the generosity of the European welfare state towards the elderly. It shows how various dimensions of the welfare regimes have changed during the recent 10-15 years and how this evolution was related to the process of economic integration. Dimensions include general generosity towards the elderly and more specifically generosity towards early retirement and generosity towards the poor. Using aggregate data (EUROSTAT, OECD) as well as individual data (SHARE, the new Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe), the paper looks at the statistical correlations among those types of system generosity and actual policy outcomes, such as unemployment and poverty rates among the young and the elderly, and the inequality in wealth, income and consumption. While the paper is largely descriptive, we also try to understand which economic and political forces drive social expenditures for the elderly in the European Union and whether spending for the elderly crowds out spending for the young.

What are NDC Pension Systems? What Do They Bring to Reform Strategies?

This paper has two parts. Part 1 presents the basic ideas underlying notional defined contribution (NDC) systems and discusses their main advantages and disadvantages. We argue that a NDC system is mainly a political device. It makes parametric reform, badly needed to stabilize the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pillars all over the World, easier because it exposes the trade-offs and clarifies concepts. It may also change the microeconomics of labor supply and savings. It does not, however, change the macroeconomics of PAYG systems and thus does not substitute for the introduction of pre-funded second and third pillars. NDC systems can be installed as individual account systems, as done most prominently in Sweden. However, they can also be mimicked by a set of rules in a conventional defined benefits PAYG system, showing that NDC systems are more a political than economic devices. Part 2 describes how the German pension reform proposals made in late summer 2003 effectively introduce a NDC system without explicit NDC-type accounting.

Germany: A social security system on the verge of collaps

Germany has one of the most generous retirement systems in the world. At the very same time, Germany also faces one of the most incisive population aging processes. The ratio of workers to pensioners will decrease to about one to one within the next generation. This will put the German pay-as-you-go social security system under sever pressure. This paper has three aims. First, it shows that the design of the current system has incentive effects which make coping with the future demographic challenges particularly difficult. Second, it shows that the German pay-as-you-go mechanism cannot be fixed by any single policy measure alone. Moreover, while a combination of several feasible measures may be able to stabilize the contribution rate, the internal rate of return of the pay-as-you-go system will fall to a level that is likely to create strong incentives to opt out wherever possible. Third, the paper shows that a transition to a funded system is feasible without creating a double burden on the transition generation.

Labor market effects of population aging

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.

International Comparison of Household Savings Behaviour: The German Savings Puzzle

This mea discussion paper presents excerpts of the International Savings Comparison Project covering household savings behaviour in seven countries. The whole series of comparative country studies can be found in a special issue of the journal “Research in Economics”, Volume 55, Number 2, June 2001. The introduction gives an outline of the research program of the project. A project as complex as the International Savings Comparison Project has sparked discussions and controversy. Tullio Jappelli, who has accompanied the International Savings Comparison Project since its inception, has accepted the invitation to write a critical discussion of the project’s work so far. His discussion and a brief rejoinder by Axel Börsch-Supan compose the second and third part of this discussion paper. The last part of this paper presents the results of this project for Germany.

Work Disability, Health, and Incentive Effects

Disability insurance – the insurance against the loss of the ability to work – is a substantial part of social security expenditures in many countries. The enrolment rates in disability insurance vary strikingly across European countries and the US. This paper investigates the extent of, and the causes for, this variation, using data from SHARE, ELSA and HRS. We show that even after controlling for differences in the demographic structure and health status these differences remain. In turn, indicators of disability insurance generosity explain 75% of the cross-national variation. We conclude that country-specific disability insurance rules are a prime candidate to explain the observed cross-country variation in disability insurance enrolment.

Labor market effects of population aging

This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.

MIND THE GAP: The Effectiveness of Incentives to Boost Retirement Saving in Europe

Pension reforms all across Europe have a common theme: to reduce the generosity of the pay-as-you-go public pension pillar threatened by population aging, and to build up new pillars by private saving through occupational and individual pension plans. The extent of such retirement saving varies a great deal across Europe. This variation reflects, among other factors, the differences in public pension sys-tems, taxation and capital market regulations. The first part of this paper looks at this variation in an attempt to learn about the effectiveness of the various incentives to boost retirement saving. While we find a strong correlation between the generosity of pay-as-you-go pensions and retirement saving, there is no straight correlation between the volume of retirement saving and the extent to which it is tax-favored. The second part of the paper uses the recent reforms in Germany as “experiments” that may shed light on which incentives might work and which might fail. We describe the introduction of the tax-favored “Riester pension plans” in 2001 and the 2004 tax reform, which changes the tax treat-ment of retirement savings in Germany from a conventional to a deferred taxation scheme. In spite of a deep subsidy and a generous tax treatment, “Riester pensions” have not found much attraction, while the originally heavily tax-favored whole life insurance is still wide spread. We conclude that boosting retirement saving requires more than simply tax relief.